Now that the spring training phase of the Jan. 23 federal election has passed by

and we’re moving into the nitty-gritty of the regular campaign season, Canada’s national political picture isn’t likely to be pretty for a while.

Count on all the major parties – particularly the Liberals, who have the most money and the most experience slinging dirt – to get increasingly nasty as voting day approaches.

Until now, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has conducted a surprisingly effective campaign – highlighted by almost daily public policy announcements – which no doubt accounts for the fact that in the latest campaign poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for the National Post, CanWest News Service and Global television, the Tories have taken a minuscule edge (33-32 percent) over the Liberals. More importantly, however, the Tories held a 38 percent approval rating in vote-rich Ontario – the province which has kept the Liberals in power since 1993 – while Paul Martin’s Liberals have slipped four points to 36 percent there.

And while this result no doubt pleases the Tories and their supporters, with three brutal weeks left of campaigning it’s still a bit too early to whip out a champagne bottle which may have been left over from New Year’s celebrations.

In politics, as they say, a week can be a lifetime. What then can three weeks bring? Particularly when you toss in two televised debates and untold millions of dollars poured into partisan political advertising, much of it expected to be, shall we say, less than flattering to each other’s political opponents.

Canadians, who love to see themselves as the world’s nice guys and gals, also like to think they are turned off by so-called negative advertising.

They’re not. Vicious personal attacks on the opposition is precisely what kept Martin and the Liberals in power in the last campaign. Then too, the Tories had a slight edge in the polls going into the last stages of the campaign, and the Liberals – as is their wont – launched a brutal, but politically successful, attack against Harper and his “scary” party.

Mind you, having seen Harper many times since that campaign, the idea that he really is a “scary” guy will be a tougher sell this time. It was easier before because few people outside of Alberta knew much about him. Boring, perhaps. Stiff, for sure. But scary? I think not.

Harper, just as he did in the first half of the campaign, has kicked off the final push by announcing his party’s five priorities – none of them particularly scary – which he lists as:

Cleaning up government by passing the Federal Accountability Act.

Cutting the hated GST. Cracking down on crime.

Increasing financial assistance to parents.

Working with the provinces to establish a wait-times guarantee for patients.

The Liberals, who haven’t been doing much beyond defending themselves against criticisms from the Tories, NDP and Bloc Quebecois – plus fending off a series of bonehead internal comments and an RCMP investigation into an alleged leak of serious financial information – say they too will begin a series of major policy announcements they hope will help Canadians forget about all the bad stuff.

NDP Leader Jack Layton, whose party has been hanging in so far – and perhaps setting the stage for modest gains in Ontario and British Columbia – once again has the most to lose if the Liberals can convince voters that a Conservative government (even a minority one, which looks like a real possibility at the moment) would be a horrible development. It worked last time out. The Liberals squeeked in not so much because lastswitchers loved the Liberals, but because they bought the Liberal line about strategic voting. As we’ve said, however, given what the polls show is a wider acceptance of Harper as something less than a four-horned monster, this will be a tougher sell for the Liberals this time and if Layton can just for a moment water down that perpetual self-satisfied smirk of his and appear genuine, Jan. 23 may be a decent night for him too.

The problem the Liberals have – and have had since the outset – is that they are likely to get bashed once again in Quebec by the Bloc Quebecois and appear to have very little room anywhere else in the country to grow. They could pick up a few in B.C. perhaps, and one or two in Atlantic Canada, but, barring a dramatic turnaround, it is likely they are going to lose several seats in the Ontario heartland. If they do, there’s no way they can hang onto their minority.

And, unless something unforeseen happens in the next three weeks, that seems to be what Canadians are currently hoping for.