Might he give federal Liberals a 'Rae of hope'?

IT WOULD SEEM THAT A LOT of federal Liberals don't think much of the

idea of Bob Rae becoming Paul Martin's successor as leader of the party.

Their reasoning seems to be not just that Mr. Rae has never been a member of the party but also that he was a one-term premier of Ontario whose policies quickly fell out of favour, to the point where his New Democrats were trounced by the Progressive Conservatives with a neoconservative platform, the Common Sense Revolution.

The former premier spelled out some of his priorities for Canada last week in a Winnipeg speech some saw as setting the stage for a leadership run. Addressing the Canadian Club, he said higher education is the greatest challenge, especially as Canada tries to stay competitive with such emerging economic giants as China and India.

"There has to be a national vision for learning and for education to make sure that Canada maintains the prosperity that is such a key part of our social justice," he said to warm applause. Later, he acknowledged he's considering jumping into the race to replace Mr. Martin.

"To go back in is a change and it would be change in my life, which is quite a big deal," he said following his speech. "Then there's always the question of: What can you do? And then there's another question... Have you got a chance? I don't know the answer to those questions."

He said he expected to make a decision in a few days.

Now, 57, he is considered a centrist on the political spectrum and should have little trouble fitting in with the Liberals when it comes to policy.

But to many Ottawa Liberals, his historic role in the New Democratic Party is another matter.

And they are worried that his performance as Ontario's premier between 1990 and 1995 will put him at a disadvantage in the leadership race.

Other Liberals have scoffed at the possibility of Mr. Rae joining a Liberal leadership battle that ultimately might be decided by Ontario delegates. One unidentified party stalwart was quoted in the Toronto Star as proclaiming, "Bob Rae is a joke," and suggesting that the Conservatives would like nothing better than to campaign against him in the next election.

Unquestionably, Ontario went through some tough times between 1990 and 1995, and it didn't help that at a time when we were mired in a deep recession we had a party in power that was perceived (correctly) as pro-labour and antimanagement, or that factories in the United States were running at well below capacity.

In fact, a fair analysis of Ontario's stagnation in the "Rae years" and boom in the "Harris years" that followed had much more to do with the United States economy than the radically different policies of the two governments.

And it should be recalled that one reason the NDP government lost support lay in some brave efforts to control publicsector spending. Without a doubt, the "Rae Days," when teachers, nurses and other civil servants had to take days off without pay to reduce government spending meant the loss of crucial public-sector support.

If Mr. Rae does opt to run he will likely be able to tap some of the powerful organizational capabilities of the "Chrtien wing" of the federal Liberal party, which includes former Jean Chrtien aide Eddie Goldenberg and Mr. Rae's brother John.

Frank Graves, president of EKOS Research Associates, says Mr. Rae has a lot to offer, describing him as an intelligent, articulate and bilingual candidate, while adding that his track record in Ontario poses as "a more difficult challenge."

At present, the only other likely candidates with similar attributes also have relatively little involvement in the Liberal party. Belinda Stronach has been there barely a year since defecting from the Conservatives and former Harvard academic Michael Ignatieff is a political neophyte who spent 30 years out of the country. Perhaps Mr. Rae's strongest suit lies in his long-held view that the Liberals and NDP should join forces in much the same way as the conservative Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties did, and for much the same reason.

After all, roughly half those who cast ballots in the January election voted for either the Liberals or NDP, and without a successful "merge the left" movement the Conservatives could easily win a large majority in the next election with just 40 per cent of the votes.

As we see it, there's a lot to be said for Canada having two strong national parties, with the middle-of-the-road voter being wooed from both the left and right.

That's what we have had from time to time in a political history that has seen regionally-based parties come and go, two 20th-Century examples being the Progressives and Social Credit.

We have also seen successful, though unofficial, mergers at the provincial level. For example, today's Liberal governments in British Columbia and Quebec are de facto mergers of the Liberals and Conservatives, one to defeat the "Socialist-horde" NDP, the other to beat the separatist Parti Qubecois.

At Winnipeg, Mr. Rae was quick to tell the Canadian Club luncheon audience that his speech would not contain any revelations about his political future. But his passionate address, centred on a quote from Liberal prime minister Wilfrid Laurier that "hope is stronger than fear," left some convinced they had heard a dress rehearsal for a campaign stump speech.

He admitted to reporters later that he is seriously considering jumping into the leadership race but said he has a lot to think about after being out of politics for 10 years.

Even if he won the leadership but failed to secure a merger with the NDP, he might have more success than other potential Liberal leaders in achieving an informal alliance, in which the parties would both endorse a single candidate in ridings where the Conservatives would stand to win with a minority of votes.