An Australian biologist who's followed avian flu since its 1997 genesis in Hong Kong is among others who say mutations and a pandemic are inevitable.

But former local MP Murray Calder, who sends more than 350,000 chickens to market yearly, says a human pandemic doesn't have to happen "as long as we're aware of what's going on, and protect ourselves."

The biologist, Dr. Stephen Jones, has written a book about preparations needed in the event of a pandemic. He says most of his information was gleaned from the World Health Organization. Others have been drawing comparisons with the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, and some have concluded - in a worst-case scenario - that 55 per cent of the world's population could fall victim, and a significant percentage of those could die.

But Mr. Calder, who says he always "prepares for the worst and would be surprised if it happened," cites 21st-century farming methods and modern technology as reasons why the comparisons are invalid.

He says avian flu among chickens spread in Asiatic countries on farms that continue to function as the general family farms of centuries past, where backyard fowl mingled with other animals.

"When chickens and pigs are together, the H5N1 could mutate (into a human transmittable one) as pigs and humans are genetically close."

(In other comparisons of a possible avian flu pandemic and the Spanish one, experts have pointed out that soldiers returning from the deplorable conditions of the First World War had brought the Spanish one with them. They had fallen victim to the flu while serving, but no one was aware, evidently, of what their condition was.)

Conditions and farming today are different from 1918. "Farming today is a specialized industry," Mr. Calder said in a phone interview on Tuesday. "Factory farms are criticized, but they put out good clean food."

In Mr. Calder's case, there are three production barns of two-storey construction with more than 60,000 square feet in the aggregate.

Unlike the old days, only a restricted number of people can get into any of the barns. And then, he says, those few have to go through anterooms and disinfectant stations before entering. Once in, they have to change their shoes and don lab coats.

Every person who has gained access has to be registered, including where they came from, their purpose, the time of their visit and how long they stayed. "They are entering a sterile environment," he said.

"There's secured entry (to) a sterile environment. To have an outbreak in the barn would be to have a breach of security."

Mr. Calder said all farms such as his are subject to regulations set by the Chicken Farmers of Canada. The regulations are under "On Farms Food Safety Assurance Program" and "Hazardous Analysis of Critical Control Points."

By these standards, not even a bird can enter. "All inlets are heavily screened." And there is control even of the water that comes to the barns.

Mr. Calder speculated that water from a contaminated source, for example from a river, could create problems. "We don't do that. Our water is all from wells. It's all chlorinated, and there's weekly water testing." As well, he said, there's daily monitoring of water temperature and consumption, as well as a computerized ventilation system.

Record keeping begins a long time before the chickens get to the Calder farm. "There are records of the chicken before the egg." These initial records include where the eggs came from, their fertility rate, and when the chick was hatched.

Mr. Calder was Liberal MP for Dufferin Peel Wellington Grey for about 10 years, prior to his defeat by David Tilson in the 2004 election.

After politics, Mr. Calder went back to school to upgrade his welding skills, followed by other courses in small engineand transmissionrepairs. Now he has his chicken farm plus a welding and repair shop near Holstein.

"As you know, farm income is not so good," he said. For that reason, Mr. Calder said, farmers are talking closer looks at whether they should repair or replace their machinery.