AS USUAL, THE FIRST PARTY to come up with the idea of ridding

Ontario of its coal-fired power plants was the New Democratic Party, which argued then - and still does - that all Ontario needs is more renewable energy plus a vigorous conservation program, not either the polluting coal plants or more nuclear generating stations.

No doubt now much to their collective chagrin, the Ontario Liberals picked up the no-coal plank and used it in their 2003 election platform, the promise being to shut down the last remaining coalfired station in 2007.

Well, here we are less than five months from the start of 2007 and all the McGuinty Liberals have managed to do is back off a little, suggesting that the last bit of Ontario-generated electricity from coal will reach consumers sometime in 2009.

Interestingly, the pledge is being made at a time when Ontario is still having to import massive amounts of electricity from Michigan and New York, most if not all of it having originated in old coal-fired stations in the Ohio Valley.

The reason, of course, is that for every kilowatt being saved through conservation measures, many more are being required to serve a growing population, economy and appetite for air conditioning.

In fact, even before the demand for power reached an all-time high of more than 27,000 megawatts last week, Southern Ontario's two remaining coalfired power plants were routinely operating full blast, together generating about 6,000 megawatts, or about one-quarter of the total Ontario production. (The 27,000 megawatt demand was met only by importing the balance from the U.S., Quebec and Manitoba.)

And although the government talks bravely about having 5 per cent of the generating capacity coming from new wind plants and other forms of renewable energy, one need look no further than the current situation in Amaranth Township to realize that little of the needed new capacity will be ready by 2009.

And even if it were, the wind plants are hardly a reliable source of power during the hottest summer weather, when all too often there's little wind apart from that generated by thunderstorms, which also routinely shut down the wind plants through lightning strikes.

No, the safest prediction we can think of is that by 2009 peak power demands will be close to 30,000 megawatts, and that demand will be met only if at least three of the four mothballed nuclear reactors at the Bruce A and Pickering A generating stations can be brought back by then, most of the renewable projects now approved are on line and Ontario is able to increase its contracted purchases from Quebec and Manitoba.

As we see it, there is absolutely no chance that by 2009 we shall have any new nuclear plants in operation. Even if they got an immediate go-ahead without the normal years-long environmental assessment processes, the addition of two, carbon-copy 900-megawatt units at Darlington would take an absolute minimum of five years.

So where does that leave us in terms of phasing out coal-fired power?

In our confident submission, 2009 will see both the 4,000-megawatt Nanticoke station and the older 2,000-MW Lambton plant required to meet summer and winter peaks, and a serious look will have been taken at bringing back the 1,200MW Lakeview station in Mississauga (once the world's largest coal-fired power plant) but with natural gas as its fuel and much smaller smokestacks than the three that were felled last month.

With those assumptions having been accepted, the government's real challenge will be to minimize the environmental consequences.

And here we think our MPP, Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory, has the answer when he calls for the coal plants to be renovated using state-ofthe art "clean" coal technology.

Only last week, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich announced an emissions reduction agreement with the state's second largest utility, Ameren, that he said

will establish Illinois as a national clean air leader. Using the new technology, Ameren will curb emissions of the three most harmful power plant emissions - mercury, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.

Under the agreement, 94 per cent of the utility's plants will meet a mercury standards proposed by the governor by 2009. The others will meet the standards by 2012.

Last winter, the governor filed rules with the Illinois Pollution Control Board that would cut mercury emissions from coal-burning power plants by 90 per cent by 2009. Illinois' mercury rule will achieve more mercury reductions from power plants than any other state.

Under the pact, Ameren will also reduce its emissions in sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide beyond U.S. federal requirements.

"This plan means our air will be cleaner, it means our rivers will be less polluted, and it means our children will be healthier," the governor said, terming the deal a "historic agreement which will benefit the quality of lives of so many people in our state."

The so-called "clean coal" technologies are a variety of evolving responses to environmental concerns, including that of global warming due to carbon dioxide releases to the atmosphere. They include:

 Coal cleaning by "washing" to cut emissions of ash and sulfur dioxide;

 Electrostatic precipitators and fabric filters that can remove 99% of the fly ash from the flue gases;

 Flue gas desulfurisation, which cuts the output of sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere by up to 97%, depending on the level of sulfur in the coal;

 Low-NOx burners that can cut nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 70% when coupled with re-burning techniques, and

 Gasification - using steam and oxygen to turn the coal into carbon monoxide and hydrogen.

The "clean coal" option is far from perfect, but in the immediate future it looks like the only one that's realistically available.