October 10 election race is heating up

2007-02-22 / Columns

What seemed a leisurely plodding toward the October 10 election in Ontario suddenly has picked up speed - it's as if someone threw some kind of additive into the gas tank.

The pattern until recently had become familiar, and even monotonous. The Liberals, under Premier Dalton McGuinty, were usually a half-dozen percentage points ahead of their main challengers, the Progressive Conservatives, in polls and close to the level that traditionally secured a majority.

The Liberals were still trying to live down a reputation for breaking promises that started almost the day they were elected, and reluctant to point to their main achievement, that of doing more to protect residents than any previous government, because they feared being because they feared being accused of creating a "nanny state."

Conservative leader John Tory was gaining some acceptance as more moderate in style, and what little was known of his policies than earlier, far-right premier Mike Harris, but still very much handicapped by memories of Harris and his slashing of services. The New Democrats under Howard Hampton were regaining some respect through winning by-elections, but were still better known for having as much difficulty surviving as whooping cranes and particularly for failing to elect enough MPPs to be recognized as a party.

This picture has changed, first because of a couple of new issues that combined like ham and eggs. The Liberals announced a tiny increase in the minimum wage, to $8 an hour, which initially provoked criticism mainly from the NDP and labor.

It swelled to a major issue when just before Christmas, at a time residents are encouraged particularly to help those in need, the Liberals and Conservatives announced together a huge 25 per cent pay raise for MPPs, to $110,000 a year and ministers to $157,000.

This contrast of little help for the lowliest and a lot for politicians, and at Christmas, angered a much wider audience.

News media across the province dwelled on people who were unable to afford new shoes or dental treatment and having to find their furniture in garbage dumps. Doctors diagnosed the new minimum wage as inadequate to provide a nutritious diet, and even Housing Minister John Gerretsen conceded that it would be extremely difficult to live on.

More than 80 per cent of Ontarians opposed the pay raise for MPPs in a poll, and many newspapers argued that it was unfair for MPPs to give themselves a big raise while keeping the minimum wage so low.

The Liberals quickly lost a by-election, in a seat they previously held comfortably, to the NDP, which had opposed the wage raise and said many who voted had criticized the low minimum wage.

McGuinty showed concern by saying future increases in the minimum wage will raise it to $10,

but it was not much of a promise, but it was not much of a promise, because he did not say when.

Finance Minister Greg Sorbara announced that he is preparing "poverty agenda" to help the most needy and the Liberals clearly are feeling pressure to announce some help before the election.

The Conservatives held on to

what they had in the by-elections, but quickly recognized that they and started screening TV commercials need to do more and started screening TV commercials long before parties normally advertise in an election. They feature people who have worked with Tory in charitable causes and business saying that he is a leader, different from other politicians, who works hard to help the less fortunate.

One aim is to show that Tory, while well-off and likely to be attacked by the Liberals for that, is warm and caring, but the Conservative leader still needs to show more than anything that he has policies, and he should not wait much longer, because some leaders who waited until an election campaign starts have suffered.

The New Democrats have now won three ridings from the Liberals in by-elections and probably are still too far behind to think seriously of winning the election.

But they can hope, for instance, to win enough seats to hold the balance of power if neither of their stronger opponents wins a majority.

This election race is showing new life and new possibilities.

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