HARDLY A DAY GOES BY without there being some speculation on the likelihood, or otherwise, of a spring federal election.

Those predicting one have plenty of ammunition, ranging from the Conservative attack ads targeting Liberal leader Stéphane Dion to the budget goodies delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and the results of the recent Quebec election.

On the other hand, there was a report last week quoting a Conservative source as predicting that Prime Minister Stephen Harper would instead opt to have three early by-elections in Quebec.

In the Toronto Star story, an unnamed "senior Tory" confirmed that general election plans had largely been shelved for the near term, joking that it would be difficult to run using "please give us a majority" as a slogan, but that the party remained on a campaign footing.

Clearly, a few by-elections won't do much more than provide some indication of whether Conservative fortunes in those ridings have changed much since the 2006 general election.

"It's only one of the factors that will enter into it," said the official, who conceded the party is wary of asking Quebecers to return to the polls so soon after a provincial election.

One thing that should be patently obvious is that whatever slogans the governing Conservatives might use in an election campaign, the sole purpose behind calling an election would be to secure a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Some recent opinion polls would seem to show that the sought-after majority might indeed be within reach, while others have shown the Conservatives and Liberals almost neck-and-neck. In our view, all the polling really demonstrates is the volatility of the electorate.

And as we see it, the biggest challenge facing the Harper Conservatives is found in the fact that same electorate tends to be in the middle of the political spectrum (except, of course, in Alberta). In a country where four of the provinces (B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario) have at least once in recent years elected New Democratic Party governments and where the main separatist party in Quebec is well to the left, the key to a Conservative majority must always be a platform that appeals to the uncommitted, middle of-the-road voter who otherwise would be inclined to stick with the Liberals.

Clearly, the key to a Tory majority will be success in the two largest provinces, and just as clearly, there are some significant minefields along the way.

One is Canada's current role in Afghanistan, which rightly or wrongly is seen by most Quebeckers as ill-advised. They, and perhaps a majority of other Canadians, would prefer to see the troops' role as much closer to that of peacekeepers, with a lot more emphasis on economic aid and less on combat aided by the purchase and rental of better tanks.

And our situation in Afghanistan bears some resemblance to that of the United States in Iraq, with both the opposition Liberals here and the Democrats in the U.S. calling for a commitment from the administration to an eventual withdrawal accompanied by a transfer of authority to domestic forces. Mr. Dion, for one, wants Canada's mission to end in 2009.

Jean Lapierre, the former Liberal MP whose resignation created one of the vacant Quebec spots in the Commons, said last week that in conversations with some Tory organizers he had become convinced that he's convinced a spring election is off, after talking to Tory organizers in the province this week.

"The talk here was to have an election on May 28 and they've been called off. And every Tory I've spoken to ... tell me that it's Harper personally who said 'Stop this, there's no scenario in the short term and it's over.' And they're acting accordingly."

He said there was concern about potential fallout if the PM broke promises that he will not pull the plug on his own government.

The Star story said another force at play is an apparent difference of opinion within cabinet and the upper ranks of the Conservative party over election timing.

Government sources say Conservative campaign chief Doug Finley, some cabinet ministers and key party officials favour a spring election, while others around the cabinet table are urging caution and a delay in preparations.

Of course, calling by-elections doesn't necessarily prevent a snap general election being called soon afterward. Then prime minister Jean Chrétien held two by-elections in September 2000 to allow Joe Clark and Stockwell Day to take places in the Commons. The, a few weeks after the byelections, he called an election for November 2000.

Montreal's La Presse, citing senior Tory sources, also reported last week that springelection speculation had given way to Mr. Harper's desire to use the by-elections as a test of his political strength in Quebec.

At present, the Conservatives' desire to obtain a majority doesn't appear to be mirrored within the general public, and even a suspicion that Mr. Harper had engineered the government's defeat by a tactic such as forcing a vote on law-and-order measures that he knew would be opposed by the three opposition parties would likely frustrate the ambition.

As we see it, the best hope the Conservatives have for garnering a majority lies in either providing at least one more year of what the public perceives as good government or somehow persuading the opposition parties to defeat them on a measure that gains widespread public approval.

On the other hand, forcing an election this spring could easily lead to a result similar to that in the last election, with no party obtaining a majority and the possibility arising that the Liberals and New Democrats could form a left-of-centre coalition government.