McGuinty's not likely to succeed Dion

2008-10-23 / Columns

Queen's Park
Eric Dowd

Dalton McGuinty is being suggested as next leader of the federal Liberal party particularly on the ground has no baggage, but he would need Joe the Mover to help him switch jobs.

The premier is being portrayed by some supporters and news media as the ideal successor to Stéphane Dion because, they say, he could pull his federal party together quickly and win a large share of the votes in Ontario, the most populous province.

McGuinty has undeniable assets, including having won majorities in two successive Ontario elections, a feat rarely achieved in recent decades, which suggests he has appeal and political smarts.

He is young enough at 53, has a low-key manner people like and appearance attractive enough a British magazine called him a "hottie," although it chose him only through a photograph, and he is articulate, although no spellbinding orator.

Some Ontario news media, which tend to be partisan when comparing their home-grown products to outsiders, have been beating the drum, portraying McGuinty as a world-beater the federal Liberals should snap up.

But the premier does have baggage, the heaviest being he has spent much of the past five years complaining that the federal government takes billions of dollars a year more from Ontario than is fair and hands it to other provinces.

McGuinty has made this claim incessantly at federal-provincial conferences, in motions introduced in the legislature and meetings where anyone would listen. He tried hard to make it a major issue in the federal election campaign by speeches, appeals through news media, circulating pamphlets and asking all federal party leaders to support his cause.

The premier said he would not endorse a party — normally he endorses the Liberals — unless it committed itself unreservedly to what he called "fair" funding and when none did he stuck to his promise.

If there is anything residents in other provinces know about McGuinty it's that he wants a lot more money for Ontario and it will have to come out of what Ottawa now sends them.

The leaders of federal parties shied from committing themselves to providing billions more dollars to Ontario, because it would have offended voters in other provinces, many of whom will not support a federal leader who wants to send more money to Ontario, which they view as a fat cat, and even the federal Liberals will be hesitant to choose one.

McGuinty also has baggage merely in being from Ontario, because many in other provinces view this as a province that runs the country and has too much power and wealth.

The last Ontario premier who went on to lead a federal party, Progressive Conservative George Drew half-a-century ago, was unable to win acceptance nationally and lost two elections.

Federal parties are reluctant to choose former premiers as leaders also because they have been unable to translate their appeal to the federal scene, particularly being seen as out of their depth or too attached to their province.

The last to try, Robert Stanfield, former Conservative premier of Nova Scotia, while much admired personally, could not win in three federal elections starting in the 1960s.

McGuinty also is not quite as sure a vote-getter when his record is more closely scrutinized.

He won the 2003 election after the Conservative government lost popularity because voters who once were ecstatic over the-tax cutting of premier Mike Harris grew angry because public services became weaker and Ernie Eves, who succeeded Harris, had no chance.

John Tory, who followed Eves as Conservative leader, lost the 2007 election because he promised to fund faith-based schools, so the Conservatives threw away both elections more than McGuinty won them.

McGuinty is not quite as shrewd and wildly popular as some think he is, but his heavier baggage is being a premier who has dedicated a large part of his career to getting more money for Ontario is therefore not likely to be a hero to the rest of Canada.

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