Queen's Park

The bigger they are, the harder they fall, and Premier Dalton McGuinty now surely knows this well.

The Liberal premier only a couple of months ago could do no wrong in the public mind, but now he is fighting for his political life.

The Liberals had been ahead in polls, mostly with enough support to win a third successive majority government, since they won their second in 2007.

The opposition Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats were so far behind the Grits needed binoculars to see them.

Voters were not rebuking McGuinty, despite months of revelations that he had failed to prevent insiders abusing the public purse. Nor did they appear to blame him for the huge loss of jobs in the province in the recession, mainly because jobs were disappearing almost everywhere.

News media here were concluding that no criticism sticks to the premier and theorizing that voters had overlooked his shortcomings because he is calm and well mannered and has been innovative in education and green energy.

The most recent indication the Liberals were untouchable was that they retained a riding effortlessly in a Toronto by-election in September. It seemed voters were infatuated with the premier.

But a few more details have leaked out since then reemphasizing McGuinty's failure to protect taxpayers' money, which were reinforced when he fired a minister, and he added another woe by announcing a much larger budget deficit than had been expected, and together these have proven last straws for a lot of voters.

One poll has suggested the Liberals have dropped to 39 per cent support and another to 32 per cent, neither of which normally would win an election, although the NDP won in 1990 with only 37 per cent of the votes, because they were split almost evenly between the three parties.

McGuinty's is among the swiftest falls from grace in history. Liberal premier David Peterson had 50 per cent in polls in 1990 and felt this was an opportune time to call an election, but it was only three years after he called the previous one instead of the customary four, and he was unable to produce a good reason.

When voters looked for his motives, they found that the economy was on the verge of declining and Peterson wanted the election over before he got blamed for it.

They then were reminded that he had spent much of his term supporting Quebec's ambitions for more power in Confederation and not enough on their economic concerns and within a month his stature declined enough he lost his huge lead, the election and his seat.

Another Liberal leader, Lyn McLeod, in opposition, had an impressive 51 per cent in polls when the NDP called an election in 1995 and thought if she delayed announcing new polices, her opponents would be unable to pick holes in them.

Conservative leader Mike Harris meanwhile built up a huge following with his proposals to cut government and taxes, which were what the public wanted to hear, and in a few weeks McLeod plunged to 31 per cent and lost the election.

Frank Miller was stratospherically high in the polls, with 55 per cent, when he became Conservative premier in 1985, mostly a benefit passed on by his admired, long-serving predecessor William Davis.

But Miller may have been giddy up there, because despite being a persuasive talker, he refused to debate the leaders of the opposition parties on TV, which raised fears he had something to hide.

Miller dropped to only 37 per cent in a few weeks and the Conservatives lost government after 42 consecutive years.

These dramatic falls occurred in elections, but many are upset with McGuinty when there is no election to stir them up, which suggests their unhappiness runs deep.

The premier has almost two years to recover before an election, but, if he fails, his career as the most successful Liberal politician in memory will have ended and he will be looking for a job — and the momentum now is very much against him.